Predict Score: A New Biological and Clinical Tool to Help Predict Risk of Intensive Care Transfer for COVID-19 Patients.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 crisis has strained world health care systems. This study aimed to develop an innovative prediction score using clinical and biological parameters (PREDICT score) to anticipate the need of intensive care of COVID-19 patients already hospitalized in standard medical units. METHODS: PREDICT score was based on a training cohort and a validation cohort retrospectively recruited in 2020 in the Marseille University Hospital. Multivariate analyses were performed, including clinical, and biological parameters, comparing a baseline group composed of COVID-19 patients exclusively treated in standard medical units to COVID-19 patients that needed intensive care during their hospitalization. RESULTS: Independent variables included in the PREDICT score were: age, Body Mass Index, Respiratory Rate, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and lactate dehydrogenase. The PREDICT score was able to correctly identify more than 83% of patients that needed intensive care after at least 1 day of standard medical hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: The PREDICT score is a powerful tool for anticipating the intensive care need for COVID-19 patients already hospitalized in a standard medical unit. It shows limitations for patients who immediately need intensive care, but it draws attention to patients who have an important risk of needing intensive care after at least one day of hospitalization.

Hypozincemia in the early stage of COVID-19 is associated with an increased risk of severe COVID-19.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Nutritional predisposition to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains unclear. Zinc deficiency could be critical since it is associated with a higher susceptibility to infections. We evaluated the prevalence of hypozincemia in the early stage of COVID-19, its association with risk factors for severe COVID-19 and its prognostic value for hospitalization for respiratory complications within 10 days. METHODS: For 152 COVID-19 patients and 88 non-COVID-19 patients admitted to COVID-19 screening centers, national early warning score for COVID-19 (NEWS) and laboratory analyses were performed to identify the risk for severe COVID-19. Multivariable logistic regression analysis assessed whether hypozincemia was an independent predictor of hospitalization for respiratory complications within 10 days (primary judgment criterion). The secondary judgment criteria were high NEWS score (≥7), comorbidities and biomarkers associated with severe COVID-19. RESULTS: Hypozincemia was more frequent in COVID-19 patients compared to non-COVID-19 patients (27.6% vs 11.4%; p = 0.003). Older patients (≥65 years) and medically assisted nursing home residents were at higher risk of hypozincemia (p < 0.01). Hypozincemia was associated with a worse NEWS score (p < 0.01) and lymphopenia (p < 0.001). Hypozincemia was independently associated with hospitalization for respiratory complications within 10 days (OR = 10.9, 95% CI = 2.3-51.6, p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: In the early stage of COVID-19, the prevalence of hypozincemia exceeded 20%. Hypozincemia was an independent predictor of hospitalization for respiratory complications within 10 days. This may suggest the importance of early detection and treatment of zinc deficiency in the nutritional management of COVID-19, especially in older people. Therefore, intervention and adjuvant treatment trials are strongly needed.

Elastase and exacerbation of neutrophil innate immunity are involved in multi-visceral manifestations of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Many arguments suggest that neutrophils could play a prominent role in COVID-19. However, the role of key components of neutrophil innate immunity in severe forms of COVID-19 has deserved insufficient attention. We aimed to evaluate the involvement of neutrophil elastase, histone-DNA, and DNases in systemic and multi-organ manifestations of COVID-19. METHODS: We performed a multicenter study of markers of neutrophil innate immunity in 155 cases consecutively recruited in a screening center, local hospitals, and two regional university hospitals. The cases were evaluated according to clinical and biological markers of severity and multi-organ manifestations and compared to 35 healthy controls. RESULTS: Blood neutrophil elastase, histone-DNA, myeloperoxidase-DNA, and free dsDNA were dramatically increased, and DNase activity was decreased by 10-fold, compared with controls. Neutrophil elastase and histone-DNA were associated with intensive care admission, body temperature, lung damage, and markers of cardiovascular outcomes, renal failure, and increased interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-8, and CXCR2. Neutrophil elastase was an independent predictor of the computed tomography score of COVID-19 lung damage and the number of affected organs, in multivariate analyses. The increased blood concentrations of NE and neutrophil extracellular traps were related to exacerbation of neutrophil stimulation through IL-8 and CXCR2 increased concentrations and increased serum DAMPs, and to impaired degradation of NETs as a consequence of the dramatic decrease in blood DNase activity. CONCLUSION: Our results point out the key role of neutrophil innate immunity exacerbation in COVID-19. Neutrophil elastase and DNase could be potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets of severe systemic manifestations of COVID-19.